to help the Blazers sweep the home-and-home series with the Kin

An awful lot of digital ink has been spilled on Patrick Roys 2013-14 Colorado Avalanche this summer, a team that more or less defied woeful play at five-on-five by riding unsustainable shooting and save percentages. Largely because we have seen a model of this team before, many analysts are expecting some form of regression a€“ the 2011-12 Minnesota Wild and 2012-13 Toronto Maple Leafs have provided ample case studies in the importance of getting the right side of possession. Perhaps more accurately, they have provided lessons on why teams must not rely on volatile percentages to rack up wins. What makes this Colorado team interesting is two-fold. Firstly, theyre teeming with young and developing talent, which could help stave off that regression to a degree. Secondly, we have only seen one year of real success from this club. The season before, Colorado played to a 67-point pace and finished dead last in the Western Conference. Since we have data on teams dating back to 2007, its not particularly difficult to investigate relationships between sets of data. Correlations of subsequent seasons can tell us what kind of adjustments to make, if any, when trying to forecast future output. What I went ahead and did prior to this post was pull out Year 1 vs. Year 2 data for a variety of team-level even-strength numbers from 2007 to 2012 and dropped them in the table below. Repeatability is an r-squared number that tells us the percent of variance explained - the higher the r-squared number (up to 1.0), the more repeatable of a skill it is: Repeatability EV Shooting Percentage 0.00 EV Save Percentage 0.13 EV Goal For% 0.19 EV Fenwick% 0.33 EV Corsi% 0.38 EV Score-Adjusted Fenwick% (SAF%) 0.39 You are reading the above correctly. A teams even-strength shooting percentage over one year tells us absolutely nothing about how that team will shoot the following year. Save percentage is slightly more telling than shooting percentage, but ultimately, its a number youre going to want to heavily regress. As you go down the list, the correlations in data run tighter and the numbers dont need to be regressed as heavily. None of this bodes well for Colorado, a team that rode high percentages and carried terrible territorial control. One other note on the above - youll see that the r-squared between EV GoalFor% in the first year and EV GoalFor% in the subsequent year is 0.19. While EV GoalFor% is a better predictor of future EV GoalFor% than both EV Fenwick% and EV Corsi%, it is not a better predictor than EV Score-Adjusted Fenwick%. That said, lets look at some comparables for the Colorado Avalanche - teams that picked up 90 or more points (my random cut-off line separating average teams from good ones) who also carried sub-par possession numbers at even-strength. Well use equations generated for the year-one to year-two correlations to create an estimated number, and then compare it against the teams actual number. First, lets do the percentages at even-strength: Y1 EVSH% Est. Y2 EVSH% Actual Y2 EVSH% 2007 Pittsburgh 8.96% 7.89% 9.76% 2007 Montreal 8.73% 7.88% 8.23% 2007 Minnesota 8.39% 7.88% 7.50% 2008 Florida 8.35% 7.88% 7.71% 2008 Montreal 8.23% 7.88% 7.58% 2009 Colorado 8.84% 7.89% 7.93% 2010 Carolina 8.05% 7.88% 7.26% 2010 Dallas 8.72% 7.89% 7.62% 2010 Anaheim 7.79% 7.87% 7.99% 2013 Colorado 8.77% 7.89% ? AVERAGE 8.48% 7.88% 7.95% Its almost stunning how identical the expected year two and actual year two percentages are on both ends of the rink. The takeaway from this is simple: one year of shooting percentage data tells us absolutely nothing, and regressing it all the way to the league average will give us a much better forecast of whats to come. Y1 EVSV% Est. Y2 EVSV% Actual Y2EVSV% 2007 Pittsburgh 93.29% 92.55% 92.40% 2007 Montreal 92.53% 92.28% 92.27% 2007 Minnesota 92.25% 92.18% 92.70% 2008 Florida 93.27% 92.54% 93.13% 2008 Montreal 92.27% 92.19% 92.90% 2009 Colorado 92.62% 92.31% 91.35% 2010 Carolina 92.45% 92.25% 92.34% 2010 Dallas 92.49% 92.27% 92.05% 2010 Anaheim 92.32% 92.21% 91.66% 2013 Colorado 93.07% 92.47% ? AVERAGE 92.66% 92.33% 92.31% The same can be said for save percentage data - taking our year one data and pulling it back 87 per cent to the league average gives us a more accurate guess as to whats to come. Using that regression for forecasting purposes, expect Colorado to shoot around 7.89 per cent for next year at evens and stop around 92.47 per cent of the shots. Now, lets break away from shooting and save percentages and look at possession rates. We know Score-Adjusted Fenwick% is the most repeatable of these metrics. Lets repeat the above exercise with the same Colorado comparables, and try to pindown where Colorado will finish at evens this season. Ive included a fourth column in here to identify the change in points from Year 1 to Year 2. Y1 SAF% Est. Y2 SAF% Actual Y2 SAF% Points Change 2007 Pittsburgh 46.70% 48.05% 49.21% -3 2007 Montreal 47.22% 48.36% 47.56% -11 2007 Minnesota 47.77% 48.68% 47.39% -9 2008 Florida 46.18% 47.75% 45.66% -16 2008 Montreal 47.60% 48.58% 46.78% -5 2009 Colorado 46.33% 47.83% 46.38% -27 2010 Carolina 47.18% 48.34% 47.18% -9 2010 Dallas 47.60% 48.58% 47.60% -6 2010 Anaheim 45.46% 47.32% 45.46% -20 2013 Colorado 47.18% 48.34% ? ? AVERAGE 46.92% 48.18% 47.02% -11.78 You should first notice that regression seems less important with our possession numbers than the shooting/save percentages above. Thata€?s because possession is a repeatable skill - or in this case, the lack of possession is a repeatable skill. Every team that can be considered a comparable for Colorado 2013-14 was out-shot in Year 1 and Year 2 - in most cases, decisively. And, ita€?s impossible to ignore that column on the right, where every single percentage-good, possession-bad team of recent history saw a fall in the standings. The average fall for those nine teams was in the double digits, and the one team that didna€?t take a massive hit - 2007 Pittsburgh - improved their possession numbers by almost three full percentage points. Not only are those percentages running against the Avs, but they also go into next season missing their two best possession forwards from last season, with Paul Stastny signing in St. Louis and P.A. Parenteau traded to Montreal. Further, its difficult to project improved possession numbers when the Avalanche brain trust doesnt seem inclined to dig into possession-based analytics. This does not bode well for Patrick Roya€?s team. Ita€?s a virtual lock that their shooting and save percentages will climb down from their heights of last year, which means that their Goal% - last year, it was at 53.6 per cent - is in real trouble. The million dollar question is how far the Avs will fall - knocking them down by the average (-11.78) would likely still see them finish in the post-season, but their margin for error will be extremely tight this year. Cheap Stars Jerseys Authentic . Watch all the action unfold live on TSN and TSN Mobile TV at 7:30pm et/4:30pm pt. You can also watch the game live with the debut of Wednesday Night Hockey on TSN.ca and chat throughout the game with TSN. Wholesale Stars Jerseys . The 29-year-old Mills started three games for Oakland this season, posting a 1-1 record with a 4.41 earned-run average. He opened the season appearing in 14 games and making 12 starts for the Milwaukee Brewers triple-A affiliate in Nashville, posting a 4-2 record with a 1. http://www.cheapstarsjerseys.com/ .com) - Graeme McDowell opened up with a first- round, 5-under 67 on Thursday and he holds a 2-shot lead at the WGC - HSBC Champions. Cheap Stars Jerseys . The veteran fighter will be squaring off with Henderson in a five-round lightweight bout as part of another network televised card at the United Center on Saturday night. Cheap Adidas NHL Jerseys . -- Mike Shanahan gave Robert Griffin III a rest, and may have turned up the pressure on himself, too.SACRAMENTO, Calif. -- Even with standout point guard Damian Lillard experiencing a rare off game, the Portland Trail Blazers still had enough offence to beat the Sacramento Kings. LaMarcus Aldridge had 22 points and 14 rebounds, Wesley Matthews scored 21 points, and the Blazers beat the Kings 96-85 on Saturday night for their fourth win in five games. Lillard, last years rookie of the year, had four points on 1-of-15 shooting. He did contribute six rebounds and six assists. "It will happen occasionally, it was one of those nights when the shots didnt go in," said Lillard, who scored 22 points in Fridays win at home against the Kings. "We have a deeper team this year and guys can pick up the slack. Thats what makes us a better team." Portlands offence flowed well enough that it seemed at times that Lillards scoring wasnt even missed. The Blazers continued their early-season trend of shooting well from long distance, making 9 of 20 attempts from 3-point range and only had 12 turnovers. One of those players making shots was Matthews, who led the Blazers in the third quarter. Matthews made three 3s and had 19 of his 21 points in the second half. "Wes is playing at a high energy, particularly on offence," Portland coach Terry Stotts said. "Hes shooting the ball well and picking up where he left off last year before he got hurt." Robin Lopez had 12 points and 14 rebounds and Nicolas Batum also scored 12 points to help the Blazers sweep the home-and-home series with the Kings. Portland beat the Kings at home, 104-91 on Friday night. Its been a troubling start to the season for the Kings, who have lost five straight since beating Denver in the season-opener. The statistic that stood out in the latest loss was getting outrebounded by the Blazers 52-33. "Its not about back-to-backs. In this league you cant be too inconsistent; you need to be a pro for 48 minutes," King guard Greivis Vasquez said. "Youve got to hate losing, You cant accept losing." DeMarcus Cousins had 15 of his 33 points in the fourth quarter and also grabbed 12 rebounds to lead the Kings. Cousins had 35 points in Friday nights game in Portland. Ben McLemore scored 13 points and Isaiah Thomas had 12 points for the Kings, who had only 54 points through three quarters before outscoring Portland 31-27 in the fourth. Kings rookie head coach Michael Malone has bemoaned the teams lack of defensive effort tthis season and pointed to rebounding as a key element in yet another loss.dddddddddddd. Malone said after the game that lineup changes could take place for Wednesdays game against Brooklyn. "Im embarrassed. Every night its the same thing," Malone said. "We finally get a night where we defend at a decent level, but we cant rebound. We got outworked on the glass. I think weve got a lot of guys who just care about themselves on this team. Changes will be made before we play on Wednesday. Portland had a 22-point lead early in the fourth quarter. However, Sacramento rallied as a three-point play by Cousins and a fast-break layup by Jimmer Fredette cut the deficit to 85-77 with 4:29 remaining. Batum ended a string of bad possessions by the Blazers, hitting a 3-pointer with 1:36 left to push the lead to 92-82. Following a quiet first half, it was Matthews doing the delivering in the third quarter. He made two 3s and scored 12 points in helping the Portland outscore Sacramento 24-16 and take a 69-54 lead into the fourth. "Everybody talks about LaMarcus and Lillard, but Wesley Matthews is the guy who has been playing very well for them," Malone said. "He shoots phenomenal from the field and the 3-point line." The Kings missed numerous shots in the third when they shot 8 for 23 and were outscored 17-8 in the final five-plus minutes of the period. Aldridge made an assortment of medium-range jumpers and had 16 points and 11 rebounds in the first half for the Blazers, who led 45-38. "With a back to back I knew I would be tired down the stretch, so I wanted to come out aggressive early and I got rolling a bit," Aldridge said. Cousins picked up two early fouls and went to the bench with 6:27 left in the first quarter. He played only 10 first-half minutes. NOTES: Kings reserve guard Fredette entered the game late in the first quarter and again in the fourth. He had four points in 19 minutes while playing in only his second game this season. His only other playing time was three minutes in reserve role against Golden State. ... Thomas Robinson, the Kings top draft pick in 2012, is now a second-year reserve forward for the Blazers and is playing for his third NBA team. He had five points in 12 minutes. . Kings starting forward John Salmons played 24 minutes, took two shots and was scoreless. . Both Mo Williams and Dorelll Wright played well off the Portland bench and scored eight points each. 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